The Politics and Policy of Climate Change in the Gulf
Aware of the volatility of the oil market, and the looming global energy transition where theproduction and consumption of fossil fuels is reduced, the Gulf countries have put effortsinto diversifying their economies whilst at the same time making long-term climatemitigation goals, including commitments to net zero carbon emissions. Most of theeconomic diversification efforts however remain heavily reliant on oil rent. Withintensifying climat ...
Abstract
Aware of the volatility of the oil market, and the looming global energy transition where theproduction and consumption of fossil fuels is reduced, the Gulf countries have put effortsinto diversifying their economies whilst at the same time making long-term climatemitigation goals, including commitments to net zero carbon emissions. Most of theeconomic diversification efforts however remain heavily reliant on oil rent. Withintensifying climate impacts, Gulf countries are also having to incorporate climateadaptation measures into their political economic models.This workshop aims to explore the interlinkages between economic diversification effortsand climate change implications in the region. The workshop also aims to examine whetherhydrocarbons play a role in determining the trajectory of climate policies and governance inthe region, taking into consideration the interplay between climate change and economic,social, cultural and political developments. The main focus of the discussion is to:• Assess the various policy challenges presented by climate change including waterscarcity and security, food security, extreme weather events, and possible pathways toaddress these challenges in a post-oil era.• Discuss the interplay between climate change and economic, social, cultural, andpolitical developments.• Examine the socio-economic and geopolitical implications of climate change as well asthe implications of policies and measures implemented to address them.• Examine the role of non-state actors, such as the private and financial sectors, inaddressing climate change in the Gulf.
Description and Rationale
Climate change poses a significant challenge for countries around the world. The latest IPCC
AR6 Synthesis Report suggests that implementing current climate policies will result in
projected emissions that lead to warming of 3.2°C, with a range of 2.2°C to 3.5°C (medium
confidence). Most recently, the UNFCCC Synthesis Report of the Technical Dialogue of the
first Global Stocktake, released in September 2023, ahead of COP28 highlighted how global
temperatures will rise by 2.4-2.6°C by the end of the century based on current national
climate action plans, and called for phasing out unabated fossil fuels if we are to keep the
global temperature below 1.5°C within reach. The Gulf countries – the six Arab Gulf states,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as well
as Iran and Iraq, historically known for oil and gas, are increasingly confronted with the
environmental, economic and political challenges of climate change. With an already hot,
arid, and semi-arid climate, the region is heating up at double the rate of the rest of the
world, and already struggling with water scarcity, food security, sea level rise and increasing
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events especially sandstorms and tropical
cyclones. Climate change is also becoming a core driver for geopolitical tensions and
insecurity, widening the disparities between resource rich and poor countries in the region.
The dilemma faced by the Gulf countries is how to prepare for an oil-free future in a context
in which hydrocarbon wealth has made them some of the world’s wealthiest nations (in per
capita terms) in just a few decades and supported a social contract necessary for continuing
regime legitimacy. This oil wealth has also helped the Gulf nations to adapt to the severe
impacts of climate change including through food imports and the deployment of cooling
and water desalination technologies. Aware of the volatility of the oil market, and the
looming global energy transition where the production and consumption of fossil fuels is
reduced, with an anticipated decline in hydrocarbon revenues, the Gulf countries have put
efforts into diversifying their economies and developing alternative sources of income
including through the expansion of hydrocarbon downstream industries, investments in
alternative energy resources such as renewables and hydrogen, tourism, space, sports, ports
and logistics, mega-projects, and knowledge-based economy. Most of the economic
diversification efforts however remain heavily reliant on oil rent. Without oil revenues, and
with intensifying climate challenges, the future of the Gulf economies is threatened, posing
significant socio-economic and political costs. Therefore, it is imperative to explore the
interlinkages between efforts to address climate change and the region’s strategic interest in
fossil fuels.
Gulf Research Meeting
