Social protest from bulging cohorts of young people in various parts of the Arab world, including
countries in the Gulf1
, has awoken regional governments to the urgency of solving the challenges
in their housing systems. The year 2011 has seen governments taking decisions and being more
intentional about addressing the housing issues in the face of growing demographic pressure,
although apparent over the last five to 10 years.
Housing need is great in the Gulf. Growing national populations have, in cases like Saudi Arabia
and Oman, already developed a bulge that will enter the economically active life stage and
present their economies with a demographic ‘window of opportunity’ to drive higher levels of
national income. Countries must see these populations housed, educated and employed if they
are to reap the full benefit presented by this opportunity. Expatriate populations, at times
growing at phenomenal rates, add to the housing need. Saudi Arabia has an estimated
requirement of 1.65 million units by 2015 (Banque Saudi Fransi, 2011). Iraq needs 2 million
dwellings by 2016 (Ministry of Housing & Construction, Iraq, 2010).
The challenge facing the region’s governments is: What set of policies would best meet the
housing need? What institutions are needed to govern and regulate the national housing system?
The questions facing private sector stakeholders such as property developers, construction
contractors and banks are how to convert this huge housing need into effective demand and what
products will best meet the demand? In a region where the majority of housing acquisitions are
new build with only a minority acquiring their dwelling through purchase of an existing
dwelling, the public sector has been highly involved in the supplying the land, servicing the land,
financing construction or purchase and even in some countries building it. Governments are now
looking at what framework to adopt that will enable institutions and markets to work most
effectively to meet housing demand.
The issues facing governments are several. In most countries of the region, supply side
constraints exist. Not enough land has been made available for housing development, either due
to the capacity constraints in the government planning system or land banking by investors
expecting value appreciation. Equally, unserviced land without the infrastructure of water,
electricity and roads constrains households from building housing on it. In some countries,
housing production is crowded out by government companies with privileged terms that mean
private sector companies cannot compete. Yet, housing production trails housing demand.
Supply side constraints form part of the reason for the increase in housing costs that push entry
level housing beyond the affordability of many. Given the share of housing costs in average
1
The Gulf region includes Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
household budgets, the affordability of housing becomes a key driver for household productivity
and standard of living. Affordability is a key macro-economic concept but how can it be
measured practically in the Gulf context as an indicator of housing outcomes?
On the demand side, households are underserved by housing finance providers. Public sector
banks providing below market rate loans, whether interest-based or Sharia-compliant, create
excess demand which they cannot clear. The result is queues lasting up to 15 years, as in the case
of the Saudi Real Estate Development Fund, locking up and constraining housing development
while households wait. Private sector banks are either not in the market for long-term housing
loans, or where they are, are serving only low risk workers in the government sector or larger
private sector companies.
Governments have concerns about how to manage the development of the mortgage market.
Eviction of householders from their homes is culturally abhorrent. Will opening up of the
housing loan market be inflationary? What will the effect of a growing mortgage market be on
macro-economic stability? How can institutions and rules be designed to best manage this
development?
The workshop aims to explore the Gulf region's housing systems, develop understanding of the
key challenges facing them, frame the fundamental questions that need to be addressed and move
towards identifying a recommended housing policy framework for the region, taking into
account national differences. Papers could address, for example, the housing system in a single
country, make comparative assessments of the housing systems of two or more nations, discuss
the main challenges in Gulf housing systems and how these are currently being addressed, or
apply an area of social scientific theory to the arena of Gulf housing systems.
This workshop invites papers from academics, government policy makers and researchers from
private sector organizations operating in the region, who are interested in the issues, challenges
and opportunities related to the development of housing systems and policies in the Gulf region.
Papers could be case studies, comparative studies, conceptual papers and empirical analyses on
the following sub themes: Land ownership – structure and operation of the land market. Housing tenure patterns and preferences. Housing demand – estimates of the size of demand and future projections of household
formation, demand characteristics. House builders – structure, systems. Housing costs. Affordability. Housing finance system. Housing policy goals, strategy, framework