Workshop 10 / GRM 2024
The United States and the Gulf: Hard Power, Soft Power, Shifting Power, New Power?

Abstract

The United States is the most important external country in the Gulf.  For the Arab states of the Gulf, the United States (via the Carter Doctrine) is the ultimate guarantor of national survival.  For Iran, the United States is the Great Satan, the arrogant imperialist hegemon whose designs on control must be resisted. The US dollar is the dominant reserve currency in the region,  American cultural and social institutions are prevalent throughout the region, the United States is the largest exporter of key items such as aircraft as well as the destination of choice for higher education in the region.   The United States has the ability to unilaterally enact economic sanctions which only a handful of countries can evade, and retains the only rapid deployment military reinforcement ability in the region. Given these interests, it is not surprising that political and security developments in the United States are closely watched.  The last eight years have the American role in the region change in ways unseen since the Iranian revolution and Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.  First, under the Obama administration, an agreement was struck with Iran – largely without consultation with the Gulf Arab States – which both re-admitted Iran to the global financial system as well as permitted Iranian nuclear activity in excess of international standards.  Second, under the administration of Donald Trump, the Iran deal was vacated by the United States (to general applause from the Arab states of the Gulf and general dismay elsewhere), and a hardening of political tone emanated from Washington, accompanied by an uptick in various Iranian and Iranian proxy attacks, including military attacks on American interests in Iraq, missile and drone attacks in Saudi Arabia, and naval mines found on ships in the Gulf as well as the Arabian Sea.  Will the Gulf emerge as a self-contained economic and security region, will it continue to be a key part of the networks of both security and economic cooperation, or will it become a battlefield for renewed great power cooperation?  These questions have been active but unresolved for the last eight years, and seem likely to remain so. With the end of the Trump administration, what will American relations with the Gulf look like?  In spite of political rhetoric, the American military footprint committed to Gulf defense has remained relatively stable: will that change?  Will outside powers, such as the BRICS or the European Union, form a new security regime?  Will Iran remain as the power to be hedged against, or will it enter into a new security regime with its Arab neighbors?  Will soft power, economic power, or some combination of other elements of national power move to the front of American tools in the region? Will the COVID virus and its impact have a long term impact on America’s role in the Gulf?This edition of the GRM takes place at a time when the Gulf region has faced numerous turbulent years, and when the world is looking to a changed United States administration to try and get a pulse of what will happen.  This workshop comes at a key moment to assess in a comprehensive way what other crucial dynamics are impacting the Gulf region and how such dynamics will continue to do so in the near future.




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Workshop

Directors


Dr. Karen

Exell

Honorary Senior Research Associate -
UCL



Professor David B.

DesRoches

Professor -Security
Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies



Dr. Amal

Sakr

Deputy General Manager -
Harf and Fasela


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