Yemen at the Gulf’s Crossroads: State Fragmentation, Regional Order, Peacebuilding, and the Future of Gulf-Yemen Relations
Yemen occupies a pivotal strategic position at the intersection of Gulf regional politics, Red Sea security, state transformation, and international efforts to address protracted conflict. Its geographical proximity to Saudi Arabia and Oman, its location along the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and its longstanding historical, social, economic, and political connections with Gulf societies make Yemen more than an external security conc ...
Abstract
Yemen occupies a pivotal strategic position at the intersection of Gulf regional politics, Red Sea security, state transformation, and international efforts to address protracted conflict. Its geographical proximity to Saudi Arabia and Oman, its location along the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and its longstanding historical, social, economic, and political connections with Gulf societies make Yemen more than an external security concern for Gulf states. It is also a critical arena where regional relationships, security arrangements, and political order are negotiated and contested.This workshop examines Yemen as a critical case for understanding the evolving relationship between state fragmentation and Gulf regional politics. Moving beyond approaches that treat the Yemeni conflict primarily as a domestic crisis or a bilateral security challenge, it explores the reciprocal ways in which Yemen’s changing political order interacts with the interests, policies, and strategic calculations of Gulf states. It considers how regional engagement affects political authority and institutional structures in Yemen, while also examining how developments within Yemen influence the security and political environment of the Gulf.The workshop examines issues of state fragmentation, regional and maritime security, political settlements, peacebuilding, political economy, migration, economic connectivity, and inclusive 2 governance. It pays particular attention to the evolving regional diplomacy of Saudi Arabia, Oman’s mediation efforts, and Gulf economic transformation agendas, including Saudi Vision 2030 and emerging regional connectivity initiatives. It also examines the relationship between fragmented political authority and regional engagement; the implications of Yemen’s political settlement for Gulf security; economic interdependence, reconstruction, and labour mobility; and the contributions of women, civil society, and local actors to inclusive peacebuilding.By bringing Yemen more centrally into Gulf Studies, the workshop seeks to generate theoretically informed and policy-relevant research on the interaction between fragmented states and regional powers. It aims to advance understanding of how this interaction shapes prospects for political settlement, institutional recovery, economic cooperation, and sustainable peace, while considering the implications of Yemen’s future for the wider Gulf regional order
Description and Rationale
Yemen represents a consequential case for understanding the intersection of Gulf and wider Middle Eastern politics. Its geographical proximity to Saudi Arabia and Oman, its position adjacent to the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, and its longstanding social, economic, and political connections with Gulf societies have made developments within Yemen directly relevant to Gulf security and regional stability. However, Gulf–Yemen relations extend well beyond conventional interstate security considerations. Cross-border communities, labour mobility, migration, trade, remittances, humanitarian assistance, development cooperation, political networks, and shared security concerns have produced dense and multidimensional relationships between Yemen and its Gulf neighbours. These relationships have evolved alongside profound transformations in Yemen’s political order, particularly the erosion of central state institutions and the emergence of competing centres of political and territorial authority.
The developments following the 2011 uprising and the subsequent political transition further transformed this relationship. Institutional fragmentation, armed conflict, competing claims to political legitimacy, and the emergence of de facto authorities created a complex environment in which Gulf states have had to navigate overlapping security, diplomatic, humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical interests. Consequently, Gulf–Yemen relations can no longer be adequately understood through conventional approaches centred exclusively on foreign policy or interstate rivalry. They require closer examination of the interaction between domestic political transformations in Yemen and the evolving priorities and strategies of regional actors.
The Yemeni conflict also raises broader theoretical questions about the relationship between fragmented states and regional powers. Regional engagement may emerge in response to domestic political fragmentation, but it can also interact with and reshape the institutional structures through which political authority is exercised. External involvement, therefore, is not simply a response to internal conflict; it may also influence the distribution of political power, the functioning of state institutions, and the prospects for political settlement. Understanding this reciprocal relationship is essential to analysing both Yemen’s political trajectory and the changing configuration of Gulf regional order.
At the same time, the limitations of approaches centred primarily on military confrontation and elite-level bargaining have become increasingly apparent. A sustainable political settlement in Yemen will require more than agreements among major political and armed actors. It will also depend on viable institutional arrangements, effective local governance, economic recovery, social cohesion, and meaningful participation by women and civil society. These dimensions are closely connected to the interests and future engagement of Gulf states, whose relationship 3 with Yemen is likely to involve not only conflict management but also questions of governance, reconstruction, economic cooperation, and regional security.
Yemen’s strategic significance has also become increasingly visible through developments in the Red Sea and around the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Maritime insecurity has highlighted the interconnected nature of Gulf, Red Sea, and international security systems, raising important questions about collective security arrangements, the protection of commercial shipping, trade routes, and responses to transnational threats. In parallel, transformations in Gulf foreign policy and economic development strategies have reinforced the importance of examining Yemen within broader regional planning and connectivity frameworks. Saudi Vision 2030, regional logistics corridors, energy infrastructure initiatives, and emerging Gulf–Red Sea economic linkages provide grounds for investigating the opportunities and constraints associated with Yemen’s potential participation in regional economic networks. Such questions require attention not only to economic integration and connectivity, but also to the political, institutional, and security conditions necessary for their development.
Against this background, the workshop approaches Yemen not as a peripheral case within Gulf Studies, but as an analytically significant setting for examining regional order, state transformation, and peacebuilding. It explores how Yemen’s political fragmentation affects the Gulf, how Gulf policies and institutions influence Yemen’s political and economic trajectories, and what forms of regional engagement could contribute to sustainable peace and institutional recovery. Its central premise is that the relationship is reciprocal: Yemen is shaped by the wider Gulf regional environment, while developments within Yemen, in turn, influence the security, political, economic, and institutional dynamics of the Gulf. Examining this relationship can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the future of Gulf–Yemen relations and the evolving regional order.
The workshop draws upon contemporary scholarship on state fragmentation, regional security complexes, and peacebuilding to analyse how domestic political transformations in Yemen interact with the evolving strategies, institutions, and security dynamics of the Gulf region.
